Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.036490 2.155209 2.279977 2.421353 2.577687 2.745950 2.941658
2025-07-20 1.887159 2.054859 2.239735 2.460450 2.719196 3.016022 3.386946
2025-07-27 1.795931 1.994246 2.220316 2.500615 2.843970 3.258057 3.807027
2025-08-03 1.699762 1.914541 2.165480 2.485618 2.891363 3.400704 4.110089
2025-08-10 1.620801 1.846962 2.116615 2.468974 2.928830 3.526904 4.398299
2025-08-17 1.549345 1.782564 2.065364 2.442469 2.947207 3.624501 4.652704
2025-08-24 1.486771 1.724763 2.017601 2.415110 2.959303 3.710686 4.896258
2025-08-31 1.443826 1.688674 1.994360 2.416821 3.008696 3.850664 5.235485
2025-09-07 1.410500 1.662639 1.981867 2.430835 3.074429 4.018058 5.638834
2025-09-14 1.361199 1.613543 1.936270 2.395990 3.066256 4.071610 5.857305
2025-09-21 1.315106 1.566633 1.891207 2.358863 3.051222 4.111636 6.055417
2025-09-28 1.268995 1.517929 1.841561 2.312353 3.018474 4.119578 6.194588
2025-10-05 1.252113 1.507836 1.844394 2.341832 3.104373 4.330494 6.755951
2025-10-12 1.238755 1.501782 1.852233 2.378622 3.203879 4.574392 7.432812
2025-10-19 1.226676 1.496764 1.860925 2.416609 3.307473 4.836323 8.208284
2025-10-26 1.198737 1.468935 1.836136 2.402427 3.324197 4.942512 8.657729
2025-11-02 1.172024 1.441875 1.811301 2.386683 3.336765 5.041536 9.112661
2025-11-09 1.144014 1.412129 1.781469 2.361606 3.331463 5.105256 9.494086
2025-11-16 1.117270 1.383369 1.752046 2.335711 3.322838 5.161211 9.869312
2025-11-23 1.099921 1.367286 1.740472 2.337331 3.362203 5.317338 10.565870
2025-11-30 1.086750 1.356668 1.736439 2.350596 3.422892 5.524241 11.481348
2025-12-07 1.061429 1.328045 1.704766 2.317608 3.397267 5.544387 11.821098
2025-12-14 1.036615 1.299577 1.672531 2.282441 3.365585 5.548365 12.112113